Chemical Raw Materials January Up And Down Analysis And Forecast Next Month

- Jan 19, 2018-

This month, the international crude oil in Europe and the United States showed an upward trend as a whole. The rate of change was always at a high positive level. The upward adjustment is expected to be flooding the market. The "three straight up" of the domestic oil market was officially established. Under the guidance of policies, the price of gasoline and diesel in the domestic main unit rose steadily. At the beginning of May, the holiday of small cars boosted demand for gasoline in the market. After stimulating prices, the demand for domestic speculations rose slightly. Traders sought more profits Replenishment before the operation, a slight improvement in turnover. The current social stock is too high, the industry has digested more than the existing inventory, while the main unit in the two rounds of oil prices rose after the monthly progress basically completed. According to Zhuo record information monitoring data show that, as at 14:30 on May 30, the domestic wholesale price of 93 # petrol car to mention the main unit is 5996 yuan / ton, up 112 yuan / ton from the previous month; main unit 0 # Wholesale price of diesel car mention 4867 yuan / ton, the chain rose 183 yuan / ton last month.

The first part of ethylene oxide and downstream industry chain


   Changes in the domestic ethylene oxide prices in the region this month, East China closed at 8,400 yuan / ton, growth of -6.67%. May, the market changes frequently, in the first half of the factory bearish atmosphere so strong that the resistance of ethylene oxide plant shipped significantly reduced about 600 yuan / ton on the 20th; However, this time a sudden failure of ethylene oxide plant in Liaoyang Petrochemical , So that the loss of about 550 tons a day's output; Northeast thus loose from the supply to tighten, which raised 200 yuan / ton in the northeast to balance the regional price difference. Up to now, the domestic ethylene oxide plant as a whole is in a state of limited production and insured, and all the ethylene oxide plants have not reached the full capacity, so the price temporarily maintains a steady trend. The recent decline in raw materials ethylene frequently, the market mentality suppressed significantly.


   Ethanol amine market this month, Yindie down, up to now, the mainstream of ethanol amine barreled in 8500-8700 yuan / ton; the mainstream of ethanol amine market bottled 8300-8500 yuan / ton, triethanolamine 99% of the mainstream turnover 9500- 9700 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton. Into May, ethanolamine market trading atmosphere subdued, although some ethanolamine device parking, but still did not drive the price trend. Inquiry atmosphere in general, businesses shipping situation passive. Due to the market outlook is not clear, the terminal stocking is not concentrated, wait and see. Zhuo record believes that the current domestic ethylene oxide is still facing uncertainty, however, ethanolamine trading market was deadlocked, up and down space are limited. However, some businesses brewing price-raising atmosphere, but the effect is not satisfactory, the terminal follow-up passive. Weak market is expected next month, finishing mainly concerned about the follow-up efforts downstream.


   Domestic non-ionic surfactant market this month, the center of gravity decline in May non-ionic surfactant market AEO-9 to close at 10800 yuan / ton, compared with the previous month, the price center of gravity fell 400 yuan / ton, the chain fell -1.5% , Up by RMB550 / tonne compared with the same period of last year, up by 5.3% over the same period of last year; NP-10 closed at RMB11,800 / tonne compared with the previous month and the center of gravity narrowed down by RMB50 / tonne and -0.4% MoM, Compared to the same period, the price was 900 yuan / ton, up by 8.2% over the same period of last year. May raw material market weakness, ethylene oxide fell sharply, the same trend of fatty alcohol instability, talk center continued to decline narrowly, the downstream market demand is poor, leading non-ion market to discuss the center of gravity began to decline, the downstream market wait and see attitude remains the same, Follow up with caution. Zhuo record that this month, both raw materials, ethylene oxide and fatty alcohol decline, live watch market center of gravity has declined, into June, the table live market trends still need raw materials market trends guide, waiting for the factory news guidelines.


   In May 2016, the market for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer in China dropped drastically. Up to now, east China polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer TPEG import alcohol mainstream negotiation at 10000-10300 yuan / ton; HPEG mainstream discussion 9700-10000 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from the previous month. The main reason for the drop came from a sharp drop of ethylene oxide by 600 Yuan / ton. Individual factories were forced to follow up the decline. However, the decrease of raw materials was realized, and the orders of single factories improved significantly from the previous issue and the shipment was in good condition. In view of the slightly tighter supply of ethylene oxide in some regions, the demand for raw materials in monomer factories has increased. The production enthusiasm in factories has risen. It is learned that at present, the operating rate of single units is maintained at over 50%, and orders are smooth. Zhuo record that the current single factory trading atmosphere is acceptable, raw material storage uncertainty, so the single factory price stability maintenance, low-end source reluctant sellers; downstream follow-up efforts are still available, the next single market is expected to stabilize or wait and see , Waiting for raw materials market guidance.


   In May, the domestic choline chloride market center of gravity down. As of now, 50% corn cob carrier choline chloride in Shandong region closed at 4,000 yuan / ton, the market center of gravity down 200 yuan / ton, the chain -4.7%, with the price of the same period last year fell 250 yuan / ton, down -5.8%. Hebei Choline Chloride, the carrier of 50% corn cob, closed at 3,900 yuan / ton, the center of gravity dropped by 200 yuan / ton, up -4.8% MoM, down 200 yuan / ton from the same period of last year and down -6.0% from the same period of last year. This month, raw materials ethylene oxide fell sharply, resulting in the cost of chlorinated chitin has weakened, focusing on the talks fell; limited demand side support, the recent terminal farming industry in general market, especially in the South by the natural factors, the decline in demand, Choline merchants accompanied by the shipments; in the implementation of ethylene oxide decline, the plant operating rate has improved, businesses are in the process of further improvement in demand is expected short-term market consolidation mainly shocks, waiting for the demand side and raw material market news guidelines.